2024 Elections Update

06 May 2024

2024 Elections Update 

In the run up to the elections on the 29th of May, Excellerate Services, in partnership with the Centre for Risk Analysis, will be providing a summary of key political developments and polling trends. We will also be sharing valuable information on business preparedness. 

The Social Research Foundation’s (SRF) daily tracker indicates that the boost the African National Congress (ANC) was enjoying from 15 to 24 April is levelling out. On a 60%-turnout model, ANC support rose from 37% to 43% over this period. As of 2 May, however, it had remained unchanged at 43% for a week. Support for the Democratic Alliance (DA) dropped from 31% to 24% during the period when support for the ANC was rising and is now holding steady at around 25%. The latest readings for other parties being individually tracked are uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) at 11%, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) at 8%, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) at 5%. For comparison, Ipsos finds the following support levels for political parties at a medium turnout level of 57% to 59%: ANC 44%, DA 21%, EFF 11%, MK 9%, IFP 3%. This is based on polling done from mid-March to mid-April.  

On the provincial front, modelled on a turnout of 60% to 62%, the SRF finds support for the DA holding steady at around 60% in the Western Cape, with the ANC at around 20% and no other party above 5%. In Gauteng, the ANC, polling at 34%, has opened up an 8-point lead over the DA, which is holding steady at 26% — below its expectations. The EFF is at 16% and MK, trending down, at 9%, closely tracked by Action SA (ASA) at 8%, while the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) is at 2%. At current support levels, a provincial hook-up between the ANC and the EFF in Gauteng would put a majority within reach for these two parties. In KZN, the ANC has been tracking upwards over the past week, from 21% to 28%. MK is at 24%, the DA at 22%, and the IFP at 18%. The EFF has dropped from 8% to 4%. 

While it is too soon to read much into a dip in MK numbers in KwaZulu-Natal in the last week, it may be reflective of turmoil within the party. On 26 April, five high-ranking party members were expelled, including Jabulani Khumalo, who had registered the party and was considered the party leader until Jacob Zuma entered the scene.  

In what may pose a greater threat to MK, City Press reported that the party had allegedly forged thousands of signatures to register for the elections. With election day just three weeks away, there is limited time for this claim to be investigated, and if confirmed, for a decision to be taken over what to do about it. Condoning the irregularity would smack of double standards; excluding MK from the elections would disenfranchise a large number of voters; and postponing the elections would cause turmoil. However, doing nothing could be the worst choice, as it means the outcome of the election would likely be challenged by other parties after 29 May, casting doubt on the legitimacy of the entire exercise.